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Prediction for CME (2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-27T04:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38039/-1
CME Note: Faint CME to the northeast with a somewhat fuzzy loop-like front that is slightly brighter in the first couple images in STEREO A COR2. The source is not clear but the fit with two coronagraphs suggests AR 4043, indicating that the source could have been a C3.9 flare centered somewhat NW of AR 4043 (N15E40) and peaking at 2025-03-27T03:12Z. There are no significant coronal signatures except for the flare itself seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME with low confidence may have arrived at Earth as a minor interplanetary shock near 2025-04-01T17:29Z as a small but rapid magnetic field enhancement and not much variation in the wind speed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T17:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 121.63 hour(s)
Difference: 11.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-03-27T15:51Z

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